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基辛格: 新冠病毒全球疫情将永远改变世界秩序

The Coronavirus Pandemic will Forever Alter the World Order

新冠病毒全球疫情将永远改变世界秩序

By Henry A. Kissinger

亨利·基辛格

The U.S. must protect its citizens from disease while starting the urgent work of planning for a new epoch.

美国必须保护其公民免受疾病之害，同时开始为新时代进行紧急规划工作。

The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.

新冠病毒大流行的超现实氛围让我想起了在第二次世界大战突出部之役期间，我作为第84步兵师的一名年轻人的感受。现在，就像1944年底一样，有一种早期的危险感，这种危险不是针对任何特定的人，而是随机的、毁灭性的打击。但那遥远的时间和现在有一个重要的区别。当时，美国人的忍耐被一个终极的国家目标所强化。现在，在一个分裂的国家，我们需要有效率和有远见的政府，以便克服在规模和全球范围内都前所未有的障碍。维护公众信任对社会团结、社会关系、国际和平与稳定至关重要。

Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability.When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.

各国实现团结和繁荣在于相信他们的机构能够预见灾难、阻止其影响并恢复稳定。当新冠病毒大流行结束时，许多国家的机构将被视为履职失败。这一判断是否客观公正无关紧要。现实是：在新冠病毒之后，世界将不复以往。现在去争论过去,只会使目前必须做的事情变得更加艰难。

The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day.At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away.

新冠病毒以前所未有的规模和凶猛程度袭击了人类。它的传播呈指数级：美国病例数每五天翻一番。直到目前，没有任何特效药。医疗供给不足以应付一波又一波的病例。重症监护室正处于奔溃的边缘，甚至更糟，不堪重负。检测量赶不上感染规模，更不用说逆转新冠病毒传播。疫苗研制可能还需要12到18个月的时间。

The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans’ ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort,however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.

美国政府在避免眼前灾难方面做了扎实的工作。但病毒的传播是否能够被阻止，然后以某种方式和规模逆转，从而保持公众对美国人自我管理能力的信心，这才是最终考验。无论应对危机的努力多么巨大和必要，都不能排斥另一项紧迫任务，那就是同时开启一项向新冠病毒后的秩序过渡的创举。

Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.

各国领导人主要是在本国范围内处理这场危机，但病毒的社会溶解效应并不承认边界。虽然它对人类健康的攻击有望是暂时的，但它引发的政治和经济动荡可能会持续几代人。没有一个国家，甚至美国，能够通过纯粹的国家努力战胜病毒。解决当前的紧迫问题最终必须与全球合作愿景和计划相结合。如果我们不能同时做好这两件事，这两件事都将面对失败。

Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S.is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.

借鉴马歇尔计划（二战后美国的欧洲复兴计划）和曼哈顿计划（利用核裂变反应来研制原子弹的计划）的发展经验，美国有义务在三个领域作出重大努力。第一，增强全球抵御传染病的应对能力。脊髓灰质炎疫苗和根除天花等医学科学的胜利，或是通过人工智能进行医学诊断的新兴统计技术奇迹，都使我们陷入危险的自满状态。我们需要开发新技巧和新技术，以在大量人口中控制感染和开发相应的疫苗。城市、国家和地区必须通过大量储存、合作规划和科学前沿的探索，始终如一地做好准备保护人民免受大流行病之害。

Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale,unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable populations.

第二，努力治愈世界经济的创伤。全球领导人已从2008年金融危机中吸取了重要教训。当前的经济危机更为复杂：新冠病毒引发的经济收缩，无论从速度还是全球范围来看，历史上任何前所未有。而必要的公共卫生措施，如保持社交距离、关闭学校和企业等，都在加剧经济阵痛。计划还应设法改善即将到来的混乱对世界上最脆弱人口的影响。

Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic,other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from anexternal enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people.

第三，维护自由世界秩序的原则。现代政府的创立传奇是一座由强大统治者保护的城墙城市，有时专制，有时仁慈，但总是强大到足以保护人民免受外部敌人的攻击。启蒙思想家重新界定了这一概念，认为合法国家的目的是满足人民的基本需要：安全、秩序、经济福祉和正义。个人无法独自保护这些东西。这场流行病已经导致了一种不合时宜的现象，在一个繁荣依赖全球贸易和人口流动的时代，这座有围墙的城市重新崛起。

The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.

世界民主国家需要捍卫和维持其启蒙价值观。全球从权力与合法性的平衡中退缩，将导致社会契约在国内和国际上瓦解。然而，这一千禧年的合法性和权力问题不能与战胜新冠疫情的努力同时解决。在国内政治和国际外交中，各方都必须保持克制。必须确定优先事项。

We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now,we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.

我们过去从突出部之役进入一个日益繁荣和人类越来越有尊严的世界。现在，我们生活在一个划时代的时期。领导人面临的历史性挑战是在建设未来的同时应对危机。失败可能会点燃整个世界。

Mr. Kissinger served as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations.

基辛格先生曾在尼克松和福特政府时期担任国务卿和国家安全顾问。

文章来源：胡兴文译  译海有道

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