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双语:国新办外汇收支数据新闻发布会
文章来源:国新办 发布时间:2020-04-25 10:45 作者:国新办 点击:

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双语:国新办一季度外汇收支数据新闻发布会

袭艳春:

Xi Yanchun:

女士们、先生们、记者朋友们,欢迎大家出席国务院新闻办新闻发布会。今天我们非常高兴邀请到国家外汇管理局新闻发言人、总经济师、国际收支司司长王春英女士,请她为大家介绍2020年一季度外汇收支数据情况并回答大家的提问。 

Ladies and gentlemen, friends from the media, welcome to this press conference held by the State Council Information Office (SCIO). Today, we are delighted to invite Ms. Wang Chunying, spokesperson and chief economist of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), as well as director general of the administration's Balance of Payments Department. She will introduce China's foreign exchange receipts and payments in the first quarter of 2020 and also answer some of your questions.

首先,请王春英女士作介绍。

Now, I'll give the floor to Ms. Wang.

王春英:

Wang Chunying:

大家下午好!欢迎参加今天的新闻发布会。下面,我首先通报2020年一季度我国外汇收支情况,然后回答大家关心的问题。

Good afternoon. Welcome to this press conference. I'll first introduce China's foreign exchange receipts and payments in the first quarter of 2020, and then I will answer some of your questions.

2020年一季度,新冠肺炎疫情暴发与蔓延是影响国内外经济金融运行的主要不确定因素。近期,国际疫情持续蔓延,世界经济下行风险加剧,国际金融市场大幅震荡;当前我国疫情防控形势持续向好,复工复产加快推进,经济社会发展大局稳定。今年以来,人民币汇率在双向波动中保持基本稳定,汇率预期相对平稳,我国跨境资金流动总体稳定,外汇市场供求基本平衡。

In the first quarter of 2020, the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 presented a major uncertainty for economic and financial performance at home and abroad. As the pandemic continues to rage around the world, downward pressure on the global economy is rising, and international financial markets have shown dramatic turbulence.

Currently, the situation in China is continuously improving, with resumption of work and production on the fast track and economic and social activities in steady progress. Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate remained basically stable amid two-way fluctuations, and market expectations were relatively stable. China's cross-border financial flows remained generally stable, and overall balance was achieved between demand and supply in the foreign exchange market.  

从银行结售汇数据看,2020年一季度,按美元计价,银行结汇4915亿美元,售汇4525亿美元,结售汇顺差391亿美元;按人民币计价,银行结汇3.43万亿元,售汇3.16万亿元,结售汇顺差2730亿元。从银行代客涉外收付款数据看,按美元计价,银行代客涉外收入9159亿美元,对外付款9467亿美元,涉外收付款逆差307亿美元;按人民币计价,银行代客涉外收入6.39万亿元,对外付款6.61万亿元,涉外收付款逆差2165亿元。

In the first quarter of 2020, foreign currency bought and sold by Chinese banks totaled 3.43 trillion yuan ($491.5 billion) and 3.16 trillion yuan, respectively, creating a surplus of 273 billion yuan.

Foreign-related receipts and payments by banks on behalf of clients were worth 6.39 trillion yuan and 6.61 trillion yuan, respectively, with a deficit of 216.5 billion yuan.

2020年一季度,我国外汇收支状况主要呈现以下特点:

China's foreign exchange receipts and payments showed the following characteristics in the first quarter of 2020:

第一,外汇市场供求保持基本平衡。一季度,银行结售汇顺差391亿美元,如果综合考虑远期、期权等其他供求因素,外汇市场供求呈现基本平衡。同期,银行代客涉外外汇收付款顺差17亿美元。

First, overall balance was achieved between demand and supply in the foreign exchange market. In the first quarter, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks was $39.1 billion. If comprehensive consideration is given to factors that include forward transactions and options, the supply and demand of foreign exchange in China have reached a state of basic balance. Over the same period, foreign-related receipts and payments of foreign exchange by banks on behalf of clients produced a surplus of $1.7 billion. 

第二,3月份银行代客涉外收付款呈现逆差,但银行结售汇维持顺差,4月以来银行代客涉外收支和结售汇均呈现基本平衡。3月份,疫情全球蔓延导致国际金融市场动荡加剧,国际上主要股票指数大幅下跌,市场避险情绪上升,外部流动性趋紧。受此影响,3月份银行代客涉外收付款呈现逆差,主要是证券投资项下跨境人民币净流出增多。同时,境内外汇市场保持基本稳定,银行结售汇维持顺差,外汇市场供求总体平衡。从每日监测的初步数据看,4月以来银行代客涉外收支基本平衡,银行结售汇延续小幅顺差。

Second, although foreign-related receipts and payments by banks on behalf of clients showed a deficit in March, foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks remained in surplus. Since April, overall balance has been achieved in foreign-related receipts and payments by banks on behalf of clients, as well as in foreign exchange settlement and sales. In March, the virus spread around the world, sparking more violent fluctuations in the international financial market and a plunge in major stock indexes. As a result, risk aversion was on the rise and external liquidity tightened. In this context, foreign-related receipts and payments by banks on behalf of clients showed a deficit, mainly because RMB cross-border net outflow under security investment increased. Meanwhile, the domestic foreign exchange market remained basically stable; foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks stayed in surplus; and overall balance was achieved between demand and supply in the foreign exchange market. In terms of daily data, since the beginning of April, foreign-related receipts and payments by banks on behalf of clients struck a basic balance, and foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks continued to be in minor surplus. 

第三,售汇率有所下降,企业外汇融资总体平稳。一季度,衡量购汇意愿的售汇率,也就是客户从银行买汇与客户涉外外汇支出之比为63%,同比下降2个百分点。同时,企业外汇融资保持平稳,3月末,我国银行的境内外汇贷款余额较2019年末上升277亿美元;企业海外代付、远期信用证等进口外币跨境融资余额较2019年末下降80亿美元,与同期进口规模变动相匹配。

Third, the rate of foreign exchange buying dropped, and the forex financing of enterprises stayed generally stable. In the first quarter, the rate of foreign exchange buying, which means the ratio of clients buying foreign exchange from banks to the overseas expenditure of foreign exchange, stood at 63%, down two percentage points compared to the same period of last year. Meanwhile, the forex financing of enterprises remained stable. At the end of March, Chinese banks' forex loans at home rose by $27.7 billion. Import foreign currency and cross-border financing, such as refinancing and forward letters of credit, fell by $8 billion compared to the end of 2019, corresponding with fluctuations in the import volume of the same period. 

第四,结汇率稳步增长,市场主体持汇意愿保持稳定。一季度,衡量结汇意愿的结汇率,也就是客户向银行卖出外汇与客户涉外外汇收入之比为66%,同比上升5个百分点。3月末,企业、个人等主体境内外汇存款余额较2019年末下降67亿美元,保持基本平稳的态势。

Fourth, the rate of foreign exchange selling grew steadily, and market players showed a steady willingness to hold foreign currency. In the first quarter, the rate of foreign exchange selling, which means the ratio of clients selling foreign exchange to banks to clients receiving foreign exchange from overseas, stood at 66%, up five percentage points compared to the same period of last year. At the end of March, forex deposits of enterprises and individuals at home dropped by $6.7 billion compared to the end of 2019, remaining basically stable. 

第五,银行远期结售汇维持顺差。一季度,银行对客户远期结售汇顺差414亿美元。其中,3月份顺差166亿美元。

Fifth, Chinese banks maintained a forward forex settlement surplus. In the first quarter, Chinese banks reported a forward forex settlement surplus of $41.4 billion, including a surplus of $16.6 billion in March.

第六,外汇储备规模总体稳定。截至2020年一季度末,外汇储备余额30606亿美元,较年初下降1.5%,主要受汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用。

Sixth, China's foreign exchange reserves remained generally stable. By the end of the first quarter in 2020, the foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.06 trillion, down 1.5% compared to the beginning of this year, affected mainly by factors that include exchange rate conversion and assets price fluctuations.  

以上就是我要通报的2020年第一季度外汇收支主要统计数据。下面,欢迎大家就我国外汇收支状况有关问题提问。

These are the main Q1 forex data that I want to share with you. Now, I would like to answer questions about China's foreign exchange reserves.

袭艳春:

Xi Yanchun:

谢谢王春英女士的介绍。下面我们开始提问,提问前还是请通报一下所在的新闻机构。

Thanks for Mrs. Wang's introduction. Now it's time for questions. Please indicate the news organization you work for before raising your questions.

中央广播电视总台央视记者:

CCTV:

在新冠肺炎疫情蔓延全球的情况下,您如何评价今年以来我国外汇收支状况?怎么看待未来发展趋势?谢谢。

What do you think of the performance of the country's forex market amid the COVID-19 pandemic?What do you make of the development trend? Thanks!

王春英:

Wang Chunying:

今年全球面临一个新的情况,就是新冠肺炎疫情。受此影响,近一段时间不论是全球经贸活动还是国际金融市场,都受到了非常严重的冲击。在这种极其特殊的情况下,中国外汇市场运行保持了总体稳定,我觉得是难能可贵的。这充分说明中国外汇市场成熟度在上升,市场主体更加理性,更充分说明市场主体对于中国的疫情防控和中国经济基本面的信心。

This year, the whole world faces a new situation: the COVID-19 pandemic. Both the global economic and trade activities and the international monetary market have recently been hit hard by the pandemic. Under these extreme circumstances, China's forex market has maintained overall stability, which I think is incredible. This attests to the increasing maturity of China's forex market and the growing rationality of market entities. This also attests to the market entities' confidence in China's pandemic prevention and control and the fundamentals of the Chinese economy. 

今年以来,中国的外汇市场运行实现了“三个保持”:一是外汇市场供求保持基本平衡,二是人民币汇率在全球主要货币中保持相对稳健,三是市场主体跨境投融资活动和结售汇行为保持基本理性和有序。在上述基础上,外汇储备规模总体稳定。

In 2020, China's forex market has achieved "three keeps." First, we have kept supply and demand in balance in the forex market. Second, we have kept the yuan exchange rate relatively stable against a basket of major currencies in the world. Third, we have maintained cross-border investment and financing and forex trading in a basically sound and orderly manner. On top of that, China's foreign exchange reserves have stayed stable overall. 

具体来看:第一个保持,外汇供求保持基本平衡。从刚才通报的数据来看,结售汇呈现相对比较大的顺差,为391亿美元,是外汇市场供求保持基本平衡的基础。从细项数据看,银行对客户的跨境外汇收支累计实现顺差17亿美元,银行客户结售汇累计顺差205亿美元。总之,不论从总体来看,还是从客户的角度来看,一季度外汇市场供求保持了基本平衡。第二个保持,人民币汇率在全球货币中表现相对稳健。一季度,美元指数上涨2.8%,在这样的情况下,人民币对美元即期汇率小幅下降1.8%。从其他货币来看,同期新兴市场货币指数下降12.9%,英镑对美元下降6.3%,欧元对美元下降1.6%,综合看来,一季度,中国外汇交易中心编制的人民币汇率指数上涨2.9%。所以,从这一系列数据应该可以看到,人民币汇率在主要货币中保持了相对稳健。

Let's look at the first "keep": we have kept forex supply and demand in balance. The above-mentioned data show that Chinese banks reported a relatively large forex settlement surplus of $39.1 billion, laying the basis for the balanced supply and demand in the forex market. A data breakdown shows that there is a cross-border forex surplus of $1.7 billion, and there is a net forex settlement surplus of $20.5 billion. In a word, either from the overall perspective or from the perspective of the clients, we have kept in balance the Q1 supply and demand in the forex market. The second "keep" is that we have kept the yuan exchange rate relatively stable against an array of major currencies in the world. In the first quarter, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 2.8%. Under such a circumstance, the spot exchange rate of RMB/USD dropped slightly by 1.8%. In terms of other currencies, the currency index of the emerging markets dropped by 12.9% during the same period. The pound dropped by 6.3% against the dollar; the EUR/USD dropped by 1.6%. In the first quarter, the CFETS RMB Index rose by 2.9%. Therefore, we can conclude from the data that we have kept the yuan exchange rate relatively stable against the major currencies of the world.

第三个保持,市场主体行为理性有序。我们可以从两个方面看:一是从境外对国内投资看,境外投资者对中国投资保持了相对高的热情。据商务部统计,今年一季度我国实际使用外资312亿美元,其中高技术服务业增长15.5%。根据外汇局统计,一季度,境外投资者净增持我国境内债券同比增长48%,规模为167亿美元。二是从境内对外投资看,企业对外直接投资也比较稳定有序。根据商务部统计,1-2月份,非金融部门对外直接投资155亿美元,保持基本稳定。另外据外汇局统计,一季度,个人净购汇同比下降25%,显示个人购汇意愿也是理性、有序的。综合作用下,外汇储备保持了基本稳定。

Third, the behavior of market entities has remained rational and orderly, which can be seen from two perspectives. First, foreign investors' enthusiasm remains high when it comes to investing in China. According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, China's actual use of foreign capital in the first quarter was $31.2 billion, with a 15.5% increase in the high-tech service sector. According to statistics from the SAFE, the net increase of foreign investors' holdings of domestic bonds in the first quarter increased by 48% year-on-year, reaching $16.7 billion. Second, Chinese enterprises' outbound direct investment has been stable. According to data provided by the Ministry of Commerce, the outbound direct investment of non-financial sectors between January and February was $15.5 billion, which shows stability. Moreover, according to the SAFE data, net purchases of foreign exchange from individuals in the first quarter dropped by 25% year-on-year, reflecting individuals' rational willingness to purchase foreign exchange. Therefore, foreign exchange reserves have remained basically stable.   

国内长期向好的基本面仍将是外汇市场运行保持基本稳定的有力支撑。首先我国疫情防控形势向好,会继续发挥稳预期和稳信心的作用。疫情的发展及其对经济社会的冲击,是近期世界经济和金融市场上的最主要的不稳定、不确定因素。当前中国的疫情防控阶段性成效进一步巩固,复工复产也取得重要进展,经济社会运行秩序加快恢复,不仅有助于提升国内市场信心,也有助于推动世界经济发展。第二,中国经济长期向好、对外开放进一步深化的基本趋势没有改变,将继续吸引境外中长期资本投资国内市场。第三,外汇市场成熟度不断提高,汇率弹性不断增强,汇率走势双向波动,汇率在调节宏观经济以及国际收支自动稳定器的作用发挥得越来越好。所以,中国外汇市场的成熟度可以很好的吸收、应对短期冲击影响,未来我国外汇市场有能力保持稳定运行。

The fundamentals of China's sound economic growth in the long term will ensure the stable operation of the foreign exchange market. First, the positive development of China's pandemic prevention and control measures will continue to leverage the role of stabilizing expectations and boosting market confidence. The pandemic and its implications for economic growth and societal development have been the major uncertainties for the world economy and financial markets. China is consolidating its progress in pandemic prevention and control, and resumption of production and work is ongoing. The restoration of economic and social orders has been accelerating as well, which will not only shore up confidence in the domestic market but also boost world economic development. Second, the fundamental trends of China's sound economic growth in the long term and deepened opening-up remain unchanged, which will continue to attract foreign mediums and long-term capital to invest in the domestic market. Third, the foreign exchange market is becoming more mature, and foreign exchange rates are getting more flexible. More and more "two-way volatility" of foreign exchange rates have been seen, and the performance of foreign exchange rates in regulating the macro economy and serving as an automatic stabilizer for the balance of international payments is becoming better and better. Consequently, China's foreign exchange market is mature enough to absorb and address short-term impacts, and it is capable of maintaining stable operation in the future. 

当然,在这个过程中,我们还需要不断加强监测分析,做好各种不同情形下应对方案。我们常说防患于未然,实际上也是市场平稳运行的一个非常有力的保障。这是我对你问题的回应,谢谢。

Of course, in this process, we will continue to strengthen monitoring and analysis to prepare for different scenarios. We always take preventive measures, which is actually a guarantee for the smooth operation of the market. This is my response to your question. Thank you.

经济日报记者:

Economic Daily:

外汇局一直强调经常账户的重要性,当前疫情在全球蔓延对国际收支中的经常账户造成了什么样的影响?未来是否会出现经常账户持续逆差的现象?谢谢。 

The SAFE has always stressed the importance of the current account. What impacts will the COVID-19 pandemic have on the current account in the balance of international payments? Is it possible to see a sustained current account deficit? Thank you.

王春英:

Wang Chunying:

当前疫情蔓延的确对中国国际收支经常账户形成了一定的影响,我们对这个问题也在跟踪分析,就现阶段,疫情对中国国际收支经常账户的影响有这样几个初步的判断。

The pandemic does have some impacts on China's current account of the balance of payments, and we have been conducting the following analysis on this issue. Based on the current situation, we have made some preliminary estimates of impacts that the pandemic will have on China's balance of international payments.   

首先,中国的经常账户走势受到了疫情的阶段性影响,但是一季度仍然会保持在基本平衡的区间内。根据海关统计,今年一季度出口下降13%,进口下降3%,但是我们也看到出口在3月份降幅已经下降了。所以一季度货物贸易顺差是在收窄的。从服务贸易角度来看,根据外汇局的统计,1、2月份中国服务贸易逆差收窄了25%,主要是旅行项下的支出大幅度回落。初步统计,3月份旅行支出也是维持在低位,就是说,服务贸易的逆差也是在收窄的。中国国际收支经常账户的构成主要是货物贸易和服务贸易这两大项目,因为收益和经常转移等规模都比较小,所以我们要分析经常账户的走势,重点就看货物贸易和服务贸易。一季度货物贸易顺差收窄和服务贸易逆差收窄是同步进行的,因此经常账户大概率还是会保持基本稳定,维持在合理区间。

First, China's current account development has been affected by the pandemic, but it will remain basically balanced in the first quarter. According to data from Customs, exports dropped by 13% in the first quarter, and imports declined by 3%. However, the decline of exports in March has slowed down, so the trade surplus in the first quarter has narrowed. In terms of services trade, according to SAFE statistics, China's deficit narrowed by 25% in January and February with a sharp dip in tourism expenditure. According to preliminary statistics, tourism expenditure remained low in March, which indicates that the services trade deficit has narrowed. China's balance of international payments is mainly composed of cargoes trade and services trade. Due to its low income and current transfers, we must analyze the development of the current account, with the analysis of cargoes trade and services trade being our priorities. China's cargoes trade surplus and services trade deficit narrowed simultaneously in the first quarter; therefore, the current account will most likely remain stable within a reasonable range.   

第二点基本判断,就是疫情不会成为影响中国经常账户走势的中长期因素。疫情的发展和变化是有自身规律的,随着科学家或者生物学家、医药学家对新冠病毒的认识、药物的研发,以及防控经验的积累和防控方法的丰富,疫情会得到有效控制,世界的经贸活动会逐步恢复,缓解外需困境。再从国内看,统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展的各项政策都在积极推进,根据工信部统计,截至4月中旬,规模以上工业企业的开工率已经超过99%,人员的平均复岗率达到94%。我们企业复工复产水平快速提升,一方面保障国内市场的供给和需求,另一方面也对对外需提供供给保障。所以,我们觉得疫情不会成为影响经常账户走势的中长期因素。

The second fundamental judgment is that the outbreak will not affect China's current account in the medium to long term. The pandemic develops and changes according to its own underlying rules. As scientists, biologists and pharmacologists make knowledge gains, R&D progresses, methods grow and we accrue experience, the pandemic will be effectively curbed, and the global economy and trade will gradually recover, thus easing external demand difficulties. Domestically, coordination between epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development is proceeding in an active way. According to statistics by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the work resumption rate of industrial enterprises above the designated scale had exceeded 99% by mid-April, with a 94% rate of personnel returning to their posts. With the resumption of work and production gearing up, domestic supply and demand have been secured on the one hand, and supplies for the foreign market have been secured on the other hand. Therefore, we think the outbreak will not affect the current account in the medium to long term. 

第三个基本判断,我每次都要讲,关于经常账户差额问题,决定其走势的根本因素实际上还是国内经济结构等深层次和长期性的因素,这个因素是不会轻易发生改变的。首先,中国制造业规模是非常大的,产业门类也是非常齐全的,承压能力和自我恢复能力都是比较强的。这些年,我们也一直进行供给侧结构性改革,产业链水平不断提升,制造业竞争力有所提高。其次,近年来国内经济结构不断优化,投资更加注重效率,储蓄率虽然近几年有所下降,但从全球来看,还是处在比较高的水平。理论上,决定经常账户差额走势的是储蓄和投资缺口,从这个角度来说,中国国际收支经常账户也是可以保持基本平衡的。

The third judgment, which I mention each time, is that the defining factor affecting the current account is the domestic economic structure and other underlying and long-term factors that cannot be altered easily. First, China's manufacturing is hefty and has complete sectors, so it has a strong resilience and an ability to cope with pressure. In recent years, China has insisted on the supply-side structural reform, its industrial chains keep upgrading and manufacturing has been more competitive. Second, the domestic economic structure has constantly improved, and investment has been more efficient. Despite a drop in recent years, China's savings rate is still relatively high compared with the international level. In theory, the gap between savings and investment dictates the current account, and in this perspective, China's international current account positions can be kept basically balanced.  

目前阶段,经常账户已经运行在基本平衡的水平,受一些短期的或者其他不确定性因素的影响,有可能会出现小幅的逆差或者小幅的顺差,都不改变经常账户基本平衡的格局。比如2018年经常账户顺差回落到255亿美元,其中第一季度和第二季度呈现逆差,第三季度开始恢复成顺差,2019年的顺差上升到1413亿美元,这些都没有改变我国经常账户保持在基本平衡的总体格局。谢谢。

The current account has been kept within a balanced range. Affected by some short-term uncertain factors, it sometimes may run a small deficit or a small surplus, but it is still within a basic balance. For example, the current account surplus in 2018 fell to $25.5 billion, during which it ran a deficit for the first two quarters and then reversed to a surplus in the third quarter. The surplus later widened to $141.3 billion in 2019. However, this did not change the fact that China's current account is basically been kept balanced. Thank you.

彭博新闻社记者:

Bloomberg News:

3月份银行代客涉外收付款呈现2016年1月份以来的最大逆差,请问主要原因是什么?另外一季度国际收支基本情况如何?

In March, bank foreign-related receipts and payments for customers recorded their largest deficit since January 2016. What are the main reasons causing this? How about the balance of international payments in the first quarter?

王春英:

Wang Chunying:

您关注的是3月份跨境收支情况,我有一组数据给大家分享一下。3月份银行结售汇顺差186亿美元,跨境收支逆差477亿美元,跨境收支呈现逆差主要是人民币出现净流出。我们进行了对比分析,证券投资项下资金流出是主因。3月份股票项下跨境资金呈现净流出,债券项下资金延续净流入。此外尽管3月股票市场资金呈现净流出,但从阶段变化看,3月24日以后,陆股通“北上”渠道资金重新回到净流入的状态,港股通“南下”净流出也逐步平稳。股票市场没有形成持续、单方向的资金流出。实际上,在外部冲击下,股票市场跨境资金有所波动是市场正常反应,相对规模变动也处于合理范围内。

I see you are concerned about the cross-border balance of payments in March. I have a set of data to share with you. In March, the surplus of bank foreign exchange settlements stood at $18.6 billion. The deficit of cross-border payments was $47.7 billion, which was mainly due to the net outflow of RMB. We have conducted comparative analysis and concluded that capital outflow from securities investment is the main cause of this. In March, there were net outflows of cross-border funds under the category of equities and continued net inflows under the category of bonds. However, despite the net outflow of capital in the stock market during March, capital involved in northbound trading and money invested from Hong Kong into the Chinese mainland returned to a state of net inflow, and net outflow of capital through southbound trading has also gradually stabilized. There was no sustained, one-way outflow of capital from the stock market. In fact, fluctuations of cross-border capital in the stock market under external shocks are normal reactions of the market, and changes in relative size are also within a reasonable range.

对于您关注的一季度国际收支经常账户结构问题,相关数据还未到发布时间,有一些数据源还没有最终获得,刚才通报的数据是根据一些大的项目做的估算。总体来看,货物贸易还是会呈现一定顺差的,只不过顺差规模有所收窄;服务贸易虽说长期保持逆差,但逆差规模也在收窄。最终情况还需数据编制完成后再做判断,大概率情况是经常账户差额继续运行在合理均衡区间。即使出现逆差,幅度也不会大。2018年一季度经常账户就曾出现403亿美元逆差,二季度为9亿美元逆差。相比整个国际收支规模,9亿美元或者400多亿美元逆差,并不会导致方向性改变,不会引发跨境资金大规模流出。从经常账户差额占GDP比值来看,近年来基本都在2%以内,目前稳定在1%左右,更趋平衡。谢谢。

For the current account structure of the balance of international payments in the first quarter that you are concerned about, the relevant data is yet to be released and some data sources are not yet available. The data just reported are estimates based on large projects. Overall, trade in goods will still present a certain surplus, but the size of the surplus will shrink; the size of the deficit of service trade has also narrowed. The final situation will be determined once the data is compiled. The probability is that the current account balance will continue to run within a reasonable equilibrium range. Even if there is a deficit, it will not be large. There was a deficit of $40.3 billion of current account in the first quarter of 2018 and $900 million in the second quarter. Compared with the scale of international payments, the deficits will not trigger directional changes and large-scale cross-border capital outflows. The ratio of current account surplus to GDP has been basically within 2% in recent years and is now stable at around 1%, which is more balanced. Thank you.

人民日报海外版记者:

People's Daily Overseas Edition:

受新冠肺炎疫情影响,我国涉外企业受到了较大冲击,在支持企业复工复产尤其是中小企业方面,外汇局出台了哪些相关的政策?目前来看,效果怎样?谢谢。

Foreign-related businesses have been greatly impacted due to the outbreak of the pandemic. What kind of measures has SAFE taken to support the resumption of work and production for enterprises? What is the current effect of such measures? Thank you.

王春英:

Wang Chunying:

感谢你的问题,这也是企业关心的。外汇局认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院的决策部署,及时采取有效措施,为疫情防控和企业的复工复产提供有力的支持。主要体现在以下几个方面:

Thank you for the questions. These are questions that enterprises care about. SAFE has implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and it took effective measures that provided great support for pandemic prevention and control as well as the resumption of work and production at enterprises. Those measures can be summarized in the following aspects: 

首先,开通外汇业务“绿色通道”,支持疫情防控和企业复工复产。比如,防疫物资相关的进口付汇以及出口收汇业务流程进一步简化,疫情防控相关的融资业务进一步便利化。同时,对确有需要的企业,可以取消借用外债限额,并可线上申请外债登记。保障个人和企业正常用汇需求,鼓励通过线上办理外汇业务。支持和指导中国外汇交易中心和上海清算所减免湖北地区有关机构外汇交易和清算的手续费用。从效果来看,1月27日到3月31日,全国线上办理外债占比达到93%,2019年这一比例为61%。

First, it opened a "green channel" for foreign exchange business to provide support for the resumption of work and production. For example, the procedures of import payment and collection of export proceeds related to pandemic prevention materials have been simplified, and financing business related to pandemic prevention and control has been further streamlined. Meanwhile, for enterprises that are in need, quotas for borrowing foreign debts can be abolished and they can apply for registration of foreign debts online. We are also ensuring the normal use of foreign exchange by individuals and enterprises while also encouraging online foreign exchange transactions. We provide support and guidance to China Foreign Exchange Trade System and Shanghai Clearing House in reducing or exempting fees for foreign exchange transactions and clearing procedures of relevant institutions in Hubei province. From Jan. 27 to March 31, the proportion of foreign debt handled online nationwide reached 93%, compared with 61% in 2019.  

第二,不断深化外汇领域改革开放,提升跨境贸易投资便利化水平。2019年10月,外汇局推出了12项跨境贸易投资便利化措施;2020年3月份,上调全口径跨境融资宏观审慎调节参数,扩大企业借用外债的空间,方便企业能够有更大的余地来利用境外资金;4月14日,又推出了8项便利化措施,简化外汇业务办理流程。综合来看,这些便利化措施有三个着力点。一是着力加大稳外贸支持力度。主要包括扩大贸易外汇收支便利化试点,便利跨境电商外汇结算,优化货物贸易外汇业务报告方式等。二是着力提升跨境融资便利化水平。包括在全国推广资本项目收入支付便利化改革;扩展外债便利化试点,支持高新技术企业跨境融资;改革企业外债登记管理等。三是着力提升外汇业务服务水平。主要包括便利外汇业务使用电子单证等。从实际效果看,这些措施可以大幅节省企业的时间成本和人力成本,比如贸易外汇收支便利化试点,节约相关企业时间成本50%以上。

Second, we will continuously strengthen the reform and opening up of the foreign exchange sector and facilitate cross-border trade and investment. The SAFE launched 12 facilitation measures in October 2019 and raised the macro-prudential adjustment parameters for full-caliber cross-border financing in March 2020 so that companies have more freedom in acquiring foreign debts and using overseas funds. On April 14, it introduced eight other facilitation measures to streamline the foreign exchange business. In general, these facilitation measures focus on three aspects. One is to help stabilize foreign trade. The measures mainly include expanding the pilot program of facilitating foreign exchange receipts and payments in trade, facilitating foreign exchange settlement in cross-border e-commerce, and improving the reporting methods of foreign exchange business in the trading of goods. The second is to help facilitate cross-border financing. The moves include popularizing the reform to facilitate the payments of capital account income nationwide, expanding the pilot program of facilitating foreign debts to support cross-border financing of high-tech companies, and reforming the registration and administration of foreign debts of companies. The third is to improve services for the foreign exchange business. The measures mainly include facilitating the use of electronic documents in the foreign exchange business. These measures can significantly reduce the time and labor costs of companies. For example, the pilot measures for facilitating foreign exchange receipts and payments in trade saved over 50% of the time of related enterprises.

第三,积极运用跨境金融区块链服务平台等技术手段,便利中小企业开展贸易融资。截至4月7日,跨境金融区块链服务平台累计完成应收账款融资放款金额227亿美元,服务企业家数近3000家,中小企业占比75%以上。

Third, we will actively use the cross-border financial blockchain service platform and other technological means to facilitate the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for trade. As of April 7, nearly 3,000 companies had obtained $22.7 billion of loans through accounts receivable financing over the platform, over 75% of which were SMEs. 

下一步,我们还会进一步梳理可以出台的便利化措施,来支持企业复工复产,以及开展跨境贸易投融资活动。同时,开放坚持主动、渐进和可控的原则,意味着有关政策不会走“回头路”。另外我们也会积极防范风险,这个原则也是我们一贯坚持的。

In the next step, we will further sort out the facilitation measures that can be introduced to help companies resume work and production as well as carry out cross-border trade, investment, and financing activities. At the same time, we will adhere to active, gradual, and controllable opening up, which means that relevant policies will not go backward. In addition, we will also actively prevent risks as we always do.

CNBC记者:

CNBC:

第一个问题,请问外资流入中国有什么趋势和展望?第二个问题,外国投资者考虑对中国增加投资,往往会担心资金拿不出来,请问外汇局对此是否有具体的保障?谢谢。

First, what are the trends and prospects of foreign capital inflows into China? Second, foreign investors often worry about money withdrawal when considering an increasing investment in China. Does the SAFE provide specific guarantees for that? Thank you.

王春英:

Wang Chunying:

我理解你的问题,一个是关于近期境外投资者对中国投资情况的变化和前景,另一个是担心投资进来能否出去的问题。

I see that one of your questions is about the recent changes and prospects of foreign investments in China, and the other is about concerns over investment withdrawal. 

在疫情的影响下,境外的投资在中国究竟发生了什么样的变化?一是中长期境外资金还是持续流入的,主要体现在外国来华直接投资和以配置中长期人民币资产为目的的债券投资。一方面,外国来华直接投资总体稳定且结构优化。根据商务部的统计,今年一季度非金融部门实际使用外资312亿美元,虽然同比有所下降,但是高技术服务业实际使用外资还是快速增长的,说明境外投资者看到了中国经济结构转型过程中的机遇。另一方面,以配置中长期人民币资产为目的的债券投资是增加的,一季度,境外投资者净增持我国债券167亿美元,增幅达到了48%。二是在外部冲击下,股票市场的境外资本在合理范围内出现短期小幅波动。一季度,全球的股票市场普遍下跌,市场避险情绪上升,所以在美元流动性紧张的情况下,有一部分境外投资者减少对股票市场的投资,是属于正常现象。一季度境外投资者净减持境内股票大约是100亿美元,3月份相对减持的多一些。中国的股市市值规模在全球排第二位,有7、8万亿美元,这100亿在7、8万亿美元里占比是非常低的,对市场影响也是非常小的。同时,从股票市场的资金流动情况来看,它并没有持续减持,总体是呈现双向波动的。沪深港通北上资金3月中旬净流出,3月下旬转为净流入,所以我们觉得相关的投资变动是在合理范围内的。

How has foreign investment in China changed amid the outbreak? First, medium- and long-term foreign investment, such as foreign direct investment and bond investment for the purpose of allocating medium- and long-term RMB assets, kept flowing in. On the one hand, foreign direct investment remained generally stable and well structured. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the actual use of foreign investment by the non-financial sector in the first quarter of 2020 was $31.2 billion. Though on a year-on-year decrease, the use of foreign investment in the high-tech service sector grew rapidly, indicating that foreign investors saw the opportunities along with the transformation of the Chinese economic structure. On the other hand, bond investment for the purpose of allocating medium- and long-term RMB assets increased. Foreign investors held $16.7 billion more Chinese bonds in the first quarter in the net figure, an increase of 48%. Second, foreign investment in the stock market fluctuated slightly within a short period and a reasonable range under external shocks. There was a fall in global stock markets in general and a rise of risk-aversion emotions in the first quarter. Therefore, it is normal for some foreign investors to have reduced their investment in the stock market under the tight liquidity of the U.S. dollar. Foreign investors held around $10 billion less Chinese stocks in the first quarter in net figure, with a relatively more decrease in March compared with the other two months. The market value of the Chinese stock market ranks second in the world and registers around $7-8 trillion, among which the 10 billion accounts for a very small proportion and has had minimal influence. At the same time, the capital flow in the stock market fluctuated in both directions, which showed that the decrease did not last. The northbound investment to Chinese mainland through Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect showed net outflows in mid-March and turned into net inflows in late March, so in our view, the investment has changed within a reasonable range.

你也问到投资前景如何?我们觉得未来中国的市场以及人民币资产对境外资金仍然会有比较强的吸引力。因为中国经济基本面长期向好的趋势没有改变,国内市场还是有非常大的潜力。而且,国内疫情防控取得了积极进展,在促进世界经济发展中也会发挥很大的作用。从直接投资角度来看,过去四年中全球的FDI在连续下降,在这个背景下,中国利用外资规模不降反升,是逆势上扬的,我们始终是全球第二大引资国。这体现了外国投资者在华投资兴业有长期浓厚兴趣。再从债券投资角度看,中国的债券收益是非常可观的,对于中长期配置人民币资产的投资者是有吸引力的。再从股票市场情况来看,中国的股票市场实际估值比较低,价值投资的前景还是非常好的。比如,与全球股票市场表现相比,中国股票市场波动还是相对小的,一季度道琼斯工业指数下跌23%,上证综指波动幅度在10%以内。所以,中国的市场不论从直接投资的角度、债券投资的角度还是股票投资的角度,对境外投资者还是有很强的吸引力的。我们始终欢迎外国投资者来中国投资,分享中国经济发展的红利。

Where the prospect of investment is concerned, we believe that in the future, Chinese market and RMB assets will still be rather attractive to foreign capital. This is because China's economic fundamentals for long-term growth remain unchanged, and China also has huge potential in its domestic market. Additionally, China has made positive progress in domestic pandemic prevention and control, which greatly contributes to global economic development. Considering direct investment, in the past four years, foreign direct investment (FDI) across the world has seen a continuous decline. Against this backdrop, the scale of foreign investment in China keeps rising, and China remains the world's second-largest country in attracting foreign investment. It shows the long-term strong interest of foreign investors in doing business in China. In terms of investment in bonds, the yields of bonds in China are very high. This is very attractive to investors who allocate RMB assets in the medium and long term. From the perspective of the stock market, the actual valuation of China's stock market is relatively low, and the prospect of value investing is quite promising in China. For example, compared with the rest of the world, the stock market in China is less volatile. In the first quarter, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 23%, whereas the volatility of the Shanghai Composite stayed within 10%. Therefore, China's market remains attractive to foreign investors from the three aspects of direct investment, bond investment, and stock investment. We always welcome foreign investors to invest in China and share in the dividends of China's economic development.

你刚才关心资金的安全问题,我也简单地说一下我的想法。中国其实从1996年开始就已经实现了经常账户的可兑换,这意味着经常项目项下的收支只要是真实的、合规的,可凭真实有效的交易单证在银行办理。资本账户方面,根据国际货币基金组织七大类40项标准,其实中国的开放程度已经很高了,而且,我们还在不断推进投资便利化的改革。我刚才说到了我们改革始终都是主动、渐进、可控,意味着我们不会走“回头路”。所以,过去我们常和大家讲,打开的窗户是不会关上的,所以投资者对这一点可以放心。

I'd also like to talk about the security of funds, as you mentioned earlier. As a matter of fact, since 1996, China has already realized the convertibility of current accounts. This means that all the incomes and expenses under the current accounts, as long as they are real and compliant, will be processed at banks with the legitimate documents. As for capital accounts, according to the 40 standards of the International Monetary Fund in seven major categories, China already keeps a high level of openness. Also, we have been making efforts on the reform of investment facilitation. As I said just now, our reform efforts are always proactive, progressive and controllable. This means that we will not "go backward." This is why we say that windows will not be closed once opened. Therefore, investors should no longer be worried about this issue.

香港经济导报记者:

Hong Kong Economic Herald:

新冠肺炎疫情导致前一段时间美元流动性紧张,目前仍未完全解除,而我国外债余额已经超过2万亿美元,在这种情况下,是否会再次出现外债去杠杆?谢谢。

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused liquidity tension of the U.S. dollar, and this problem hasn't been completely solved to this point. As China's balance of foreign debt has exceeded $2 trillion, will there be deleveraging on foreign debt? Thank you.

王春英:

Wang Chunying:

目前来看,我国外债出现较大幅度去杠杆的风险相对较小。可以从以下几个方面来讲:首先,近年来中国的外债增长是相对平稳的。我们可以用一组数据来说明问题,去年末外债余额达到了20573亿美元,比2014年末历史高峰增加了2774亿美元。虽然绝对额增加,但是从相对指标来看,比如和近年来的经济增长相比,外债的相对增幅并不高。2019年末,外债余额和当年的GDP之比是14.3%,2014年底这个比例是17%,所以目前是下降了2个多百分点。还有,近年来外债增长,我国的对外资产也在增长,所以我们比较了一下外债和对外资产的规模,2019年末这个比例是26.7%,比2018年末下降了0.1个百分点,比2014年末下降了1个百分点。这说明,我国外债在经历了2015年和2016年初的去杠杆以后,增长是十分平稳的,和经济发展也是十分吻合的,与对外开放程度也是相匹配的。同时,在这个期间,人民币汇率保持了基本稳定、双向波动,我国外债没有出现顺周期的过度加杠杆,所以出现大幅去杠杆的可能性就很低。

Based on the current situation, the risk of significant deleveraging on China's foreign debt is relatively small. First, the growth of China's foreign debt has been comparatively stable in recent years. Here are some statistics for your reference. By the end of 2019, the balance of foreign debt reached $2.06 trillion, which was $277.4 billion more than the historical peak figure at the end of 2014. Although the absolute amount has increased, the relative increase of foreign debt is not high when compared to the economic growth in recent years. At the end of 2019, the balance of foreign debt stood at 14.3% of the GDP that year, whereas the ratio at the end of 2014 was 17%. Therefore, this ratio was down by more than two percentage points. In addition, as the foreign debt increased in recent years, China's external assets also rose. Therefore, we have made comparisons regarding the scale of foreign debt and external assets. By the end of 2019, this ratio was 26.7%, which is a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the end of 2018 and a decrease of one percentage point by the end of 2014. This means that since deleveraging in 2015 and early 2016, the growth of China's foreign debt has been fairly stable. It is consistent with our economic growth, and it also matches China's openness to the rest of the world. In the meantime, during this period, the exchange rate of RMB has remained basically stable and fluctuated in both directions. There is no procyclical leveraging on China's foreign debt; thus, the risk of significant deleveraging in this field is relatively small. 

第二,当前我国外债结构进一步优化。例如,2018年末,本币外债占比33%,2019年末本币外债占比上升到了35%,本币外债占比提高了2个百分点。还有就是中长期外债占比也在上升,中长期外债相对比较稳定,中长期外债占比是从35%增长到41%。同时,得益于银行间债券市场开放,境外投资者购买境内债券增加,在外债中的占比从2014年末的8%提高到了2019年末的26%。投资中国债券的投资者主要都是境外央行,这类机构和主权基金主要是出于中长期配置人民币资产的需要来投资中国债券。所以,他们的特点是不以短期盈利为目的,投资具有内在的稳定性。另外,我国外债的负债率、债务率和偿债率都在国际安全线以内,而且远低于发达国家和新兴市场国家整体水平。

Second, our external debt structure has been further optimized. For example, at the end of 2019, the external debt in domestic currency accounted for 35% of total external debt. This was two percentage points higher than in 2018, and the proportion of medium-and long-term external debt had steadily increased from 35% to 41%. Benefitting from China's interbank bond market, foreign investors purchased more domestic bonds than before, accounting for 26% of the total external debt in late 2019, which was up from 8% in late 2014. The investors have been mainly foreign central banks. These institutions and sovereign wealth funds chose to invest in Chinese bonds out of demand for medium-and long-term allocation of RMB assets. They are inherently stable and are not angling for short-term gains. In addition, China's debt ratio, foreign debt ratio and debt service ratio are all within the internationally recognized safety margins and are much lower than the overall level of developed countries and emerging markets. 

此外,从市场环境看,2015年和2016年上一轮外债去杠杆时期,存在美联储加息这个大背景,美元利率、汇率上涨。但现在的环境是美联储货币政策更加宽松,美元不管是短端还是长端的利率都是在下行的,人民币汇率总体稳定,重现较大规模外债去杠杆的可能性较低。

We saw external debt deleveraging in 2015 and 2016 when the dollar interest rates and foreign exchange rate rose due to the Federal Reserve's hike of interest rates. Now, with the Fed adopting an easy monetary policy, the short- and long-term interest rates of the U.S. dollar continuing their downwards movement, and the RMB exchange rate remaining generally stable, it is unlikely that a large-scale deleveraging of external debt will reoccur. 

从今年一季度的初步数据看,我国登记外债稳中有升,境外投资者总体增持境内债券,未出现明显去杠杆,谢谢。

Preliminary data from the first quarter shows that our registered external debt steadily increased, foreign investors increased their holding of China's domestic bonds, and there was no evidence of deleveraging. Thank you.

袭艳春:

Xi Yanchun:

再次感谢王春英女士,也谢谢大家,今天的发布会到此结束。

Thank you again Ms. Wang, Thank you all. Today's press conference is hereby concluded.

文章来源:国新办

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