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双语:亚洲正在塑造能源行业的未来
文章来源:世界经济论坛 发布时间:2020-04-06 18:29 作者:世界经济论坛 点击:

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双语:亚洲正在塑造能源行业的未来

The future of energy is being shaped in Asia

亚洲正在塑造能源行业的未来

A Frenchman is credited with being the first to discover the photovoltaic effect that produces electricity from sunlight. The first solar panel was built in the US. But when Abu Dhabi decided to build the world’s largest individual solar power project, they looked east for help.

第一个发现光伏效应(阳光产生电能)的是法国人,第一块太阳能电池板由美国制造。但是,当阿布扎比决定建造世界上最大的单体太阳能发电项目时,他们选择向东方国度寻求帮助。

The country partnered with Chinese and Japanese companies to construct a facility, which opened this year, with a peak capacity of 1.18 gigawatts generated by 3.2 million solar panels. That’s because Asia, more than any other region on the planet, and China, more than any other nation, currently represent the future of solar energy, and are at the heart of the ensuing industrywide transformation from fossil fuels to renewable and nuclear energy.

阿联酋与中国及日本公司合作建造的设施,将于今年正式投入运行,其320万块太阳能电池板的峰值容量为1.18吉瓦。亚洲目前代表着太阳能的未来,因为亚洲的太阳能发电量比地球上其他地区都多,而中国则比其他国家都多——亚洲站在了全球能源转型(从化石燃料向可再生能源及核能转型)的舞台中心。

Decarbonization is changing the face of energy and the world economy in more ways than most consumers — and even most executives — appreciate. Besides the transition from molecule to electron, as this move toward electrification suggests, it is also shifting the industry’s economic base from West to East and reconfiguring the hierarchy of companies and geographies that define energy.

脱碳正在以超出大多数消费者(甚至是大多数管理者)想象的方式改变着能源行业和世界经济的面貌。正如电气化趋势所预示的那样,除了从分子到电子的过渡之外,能源行业的经济基础也从西方转移到了东方,并重新定义了公司的层次结构,以及能源行业的地缘局势。

Asia is the 800-pound gorilla in the energy story. First, its continued economic growth and rising standard of living will make its constituent nations pre-eminent energy consumers for the foreseeable future. A study by BP indicates that Asia, including China and India, will represent 43% of global energy demand by 2040, and through that year, the region will account for more than 50% of the growth in demand. In contrast, energy demand among the 36 nations in the OECD, which includes most big economies in the Americas and Europe, will be flat.

在能源方面,亚洲可以被比拟成重达800磅的大猩猩。首先,其持续的经济增长和生活水平的提高将使其成员国在可预见的未来成为能源消费大国。BP(英国石油公司)的一项研究表明,到2040年,包括中国和印度在内的亚洲将占全球能源需求的43%,同时占能源需求增长的50%以上。相比之下,经合组织(OECD)的36个国家(包括美洲和欧洲大多数大型经济体)的能源需求将与现在的状况持平。

China's sunny outlook

中国阳光灿烂的前景

Second, places like China are already among the most important suppliers of non-fossil fuel-based energy and technology. By 2017, China owned 72% of the world's solar photovoltaic module production; in comparison, the US has 1% and Europe 2%. Of the eight top producers, six are Asian. Not including hydropower, China has somewhere around one-third of the world’s installed renewable capacity; the EU has a little over a quarter; and the US accounts for 14%. China also leads in the generation of hydropower.

中国这样的地方已经是非化石燃料基能源和技术的最重要供应商之一。 到2017年,中国拥有全球太阳能光伏组件产量的72%; 相比之下,美国为1%,欧洲为2%。 在八家顶级生产商中,有六家是亚洲生产商。 把水力发电排除在外,中国的可再生能源装机容量约占世界的三分之一,而欧盟仅占四分之一,美国仅占14%。与此同时,中国在水力发电方面也处于领先地位。

China is the third-largest miner of the primary raw material used to produce those batteries, lithium — often referred to as white petroleum because of its mounting economic importance. Chinese producers are also buying up lithium reserves in Chile, the world's second-largest lithium miner (Australia takes the top spot).

中国还是电池主要原材料——锂矿的第三大开采国,锂因其日益重要的经济地位而常被称为“白色石油”。中国的生产商还购买了世界第二大锂矿开采国智利的库存(澳大利亚位居首位)。

A fundamental overhaul

一场根本性的变革

Of course, climate change is forcing the energy industry to undergo an existential transformation that may eventually see the elimination of fossil fuels entirely. While most executives at oil companies will be dead or at least retired before that transition proceeds to what seems its inevitable end, the slowing of demand is already being felt.

当然,气候变化迫使能源行业进行生存转型,最终可能会彻底消除化石燃料。 尽管大多数石油公司高管会在这种转变走向其不可避免的终点前离开人世(或至少已经退休),但他们已经切实感受到化石燃料需求的放缓。

Worldwide, demand for oil will peak in around 2034, according to Vitol, a Switzerland-based energy and commodity trading company. Wood Mackenzie, a commercial intelligence consultancy, reckons demand in the developed world has probably already topped out, with the OECD expected to move into structural decline by next year. The global demand for liquid fuel is about to see its growth rate take a dramatic dip over the next five years.

总部位于瑞士的能源和商品贸易公司维托尔(Vitol)表示,全球石油需求将在2034年左右达到顶峰。 商业情报咨询公司伍德·麦肯齐(Wood Mackenzie)认为,发达国家的化石燃料需求可能已经达到顶峰,而经合组织(OECD)预计到明年将进入结构性下降。 未来五年,全球范围内的液体燃料需求增长率将急剧下降。

By contrast, the demand for electricity seems insatiable. Electrification rates continue to rise across the globe, with Asia expected to be close to 100% coverage by 2030. Much of that growth in demand may be supplied by renewables and nuclear power rather than fossil fuel-generated power, although natural gas is expected to play a role for years to come. It also may be accomplished through a decentralization of generating capacity, such as recent rural electrification projects in places like Malawi and Bangladesh where farmers and villages use solar panels and small generators to provide their own electricity.

相比之下,电力需求似乎是永远无法满足的。全球的电气化率持续上升,到2030年,亚洲的覆盖率预计将接近100%。电力需求的大部分增长可能由可再生能源和核能提供,而不是通过化石燃料发电(预计天然气将在未来的几年中继续发挥作用)。电力需求也可以通过发电权的下放来弥合,例如最近在马拉维和孟加拉国的农村电气化项目,那里的农民和村庄可以使用太阳能电池板和小型发电机自己提供电力。

Yet despite the urgency of climate concerns and the rapidly falling cost of renewable energy, the speed at which this existential energy transition will happen is uncertain, as pre- and post-tax subsidies on fossil fuels remain in place, discouraging consumers to make the change to a more environmentally beneficial and frequently cheaper source of energy. The International Monetary Fund estimates post-tax subsidies on fossil fuels like coal and petroleum — a result of unpriced externalities, such as societal costs from air pollution and global warming — totalled $5.2 trillion in 2017.

尽管气候问题日益紧迫,可再生能源成本迅速下降,但由于化石燃料的税前/税后补贴仍然存在,这种能源消费的转换速度仍不确定,这使得消费者不愿做出改变,不愿意转向对环境更有利,且通常更便宜的能源。 国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)估计,煤和石油等化石燃料的税后补贴(由于空气污染和全球变暖等社会成本所造成的高昂外部性)在2017年总计达5.2万亿美元。

Regardless of the speed of transformation, there’s no doubt it is already well under way. That’s why places like the United Arab Emirates (of which Abu Dhabi is the largest) are building solar power and nuclear facilities, despite being the world’s eighth-largest oil producer — and making the transition with Asian partners. They see the future.

不管速度如何,毫无疑问,这场变革已经是进行时。阿拉伯联合酋长国(阿布扎比是其中最大的城市)作为世界第八大产油国,仍在与亚洲伙伴合作建设太阳能和核能设施——他们看到了能源行业的未来。

文章来源:世界经济论坛

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